UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

If im being honest, Seeing Despaigne destroy Waldo would make me the happiest. After the Arlovski match, I can't stand Waldo at all

The black BEAAAAAST!!!
please derrick ko this dude in the first round and take your pants off 

Hooper vs Borschev
Borschev KO RD 1

hilarious fight. whoever wins will win dominantly, its just a question of who gets their game going first. We have already seen a similar matchup in Garcia vs hooper; in that fight, hooper fought a very dangerous striker, but one where if hooper got a td the fight would be over. That is the exact scenario here, except Slava is a much better technical striker than Garcia and also hits harder. I have never rated hooper very highly but I don't like him at 155 at all. Yeah, hes 2-0 but he has shown absolutely 0 improvements from the Garcia fight & has also been given layups. His strength has translated better than I thought but his other skills have stayed the same. His striking is just as bad as ever, and even more concerning, I don't think he can handle the power of 155ers very well. If the Garcia fight wasn't bad enough, he got flash koed with a punch from leavitt of all people (perfect style matchup for hooper btw). Slava's forward pressure is actually insane. l will admit that he isn't perfect on the feet, but his technique combined with his power is really deadly; I cannot picture hooper eating shots from him for very long. If hooper is able to get a takedown, he will kill Slava. Slava can't wrestle & hoopers top game is genuinely pretty good. That being said, I think he is going to get cracked once & his gameplan will immediately go out the window.

McKinney vs Ribovics
Ribovics KO RD 2

I already wrote my piece on this fight but I am so baffled by the love for McKinney here. The sadykov/bonfim fights proved his "cardio" issues are also mental. The pace in those fights were not insane and yet he still seemed to have nothing outside of the first few minutes (actually he had no success against bonfim). In these fights, I noticed McKinney looked visibly scared & was fighting to avoid taking damage (constant panic wrestling, over exaggerated movements, no setup with his strikes, etc.). When he faces guys who shouldn't be in the ufc, he looks amazing as expected. I don't think ribovics has a massively high ceiling, but he has shown a lot of good qualities & more than enough skills to beat mkcinney. In fact, he had a McKinney-esque fight his last time out. Kirk got him down instantly, held him for 5 min, and then completely death gassed & quit later in the fight. I don't like ribovics defense, but unless McKinney one taps him I think he can eat most of his strikes. Conversely, ribovics has disgusting boxing; once he rips a combo at McKinney I think he is going to **** himself. Not only that, but his chin in general is not great. I think he will easily get ribovics down, everyone who's fought him as been able to. However, if he can't get a sub in round 1 he will lose; we have seen this scenario against sadykov & in ribovis last fight. Mckinney is dangerous and I would like it if he wins, but I don't think I can trust him against anyone ufc level.

Ricci vs Torres
Torres DEC

this is a strange one. I should know better than picking the 34 year old coming off of two kids and a 2 year layoff, but I don't get the Ricci hype at all. Yes, she's very attractive but I don't think she's very good. She has a well rounded skillset but doesnt amaze me anywhere. I think it's also crucial to mention the insanely easy level of comp she's had. Oliviera, penne, and Viana are all horrible & don't have tdd, and Gillian was a favorable matchup (that fight was much more competitive than I remembered). The big thing here is Ricci's grappling. She has been able to takedown her opponents at will, but as the skill level has increased, she has had less & less success. I actually found it very concerning she went 3/8 on tds for 38 seconds of control against a guard player like Robertson. The blueprint to beating torres is easy, just take her and hold her down, but that is much easier said than done. The only person to rag doll her was Andrade 6 years ago. Unless she's completely shot from the layoff, I don't think Ricci has grappling success. In a striking match, I have to favor even an old torres. She was one of the better strikers in her division when she was active & I think even now she is still much sharper than Ricci. I think it's also key to mention torres should be on a 4 fight winning streak, she was robbed badly against dern. Maybe she comes back terrible after layoff + childbirth, but I really don't think Ricci is top 15 level.

Waters vs Goff
Waters KO RD 1

Im confused why everyone is on goff. I love watching him fight but his style is absurdly unsustainable, especially at the ufc level. Goff is ultra violent & never has a boring fight. That being said, he does get badly compromised in every single fight. Im not exaggerating either, you watch any of his fights & he either gets pieced up, dropped badly, or taken down & put in a bad position early. He then powers through it and finds a way to finish his opponents, usually by gassing them out. Now, while this style is awesome, at the end of the day he is getting sat on his ass by very bad regional fighters. And not just dropped, but dropped very badly. I think his hands are solid & he combines nutty power with insane pressure, but his chin and defense are very concerning. Now waters on the other hand, I think is very good. He reminds me of a 170 version of bobby green a little; everything he throws is from his hips, he fights with his hands down, and relies on slick head movements & shoulder rolling for defense. I don't like how he continues to keep his hands down in the pocket, but his head movement is legitimatly very good. Waters is also very crafty, he knows how to use every bit of his size. He is a sniper and throws punches & other strikes from very weird angles. Waters biggest flaw is his tdd, but that shouldn't matter here since goff will brawl. With how many openings he leaves, I think waters should very easily be able to counter him and get the finish. I think once goff fights someone ufc level (waters) he will realize that they aren't going to let him recover like the cans on regionals do.

Hadley vs Johnson
Hadley DEC

Hardest fight for me to call here. I think this will be very fun but it's an impossible fight to call. For one, I like both a lot so that already makes it tough but even worse is the fact these are two of the biggest flakes in the ufc; again, I love both but they have constantly shat the bed in the ufc and lost very winnable fights. InnerG is just so damn frustrating; I maintain he has the toolset and skills to be a top 10 guy, but he has struggled very badly since getting here. On one end, he has been given a lot of ****** matchups (wrestler after wrestler), but even when hes been given layups he has struggled a lot.; Insane robbery over zhalgas and losing to ode on short notice come to mind. He did finally fight to the level I hold him against azat, but watching that fight back I really think azat blew his load trying to sub him. Hadley pushes an insane pace on the feet so innerG cannot afford to do his usual low volume garbage, or else he will fall massively behind. I want to believe he won't pull a stunt in his hometown, but who knows with innerG. Hadley's boxing is very impressive to me, he puts out an absurd pace and really lets his hands go. his boxing technique is really clean and I like his unorthodox use of high guard. The striking is very close in this fight, I almost want to lean innerG but idk if I can trust him to fight at hadleys pace. If innerG wrestles, this is a super easy win. Hadley has no tdd at all & is perfectly fine playing bjj off of his back. I think his bjj is very high level, but if you couldn't sub durden then absolutely no way you sub innerG. Now, InnerG rarely wrestles but he is a very solid grappler, I can definitely see him mixing it in and winning moments while Hadley wastes time trying to sub him. I know whoever I pick will end up losing, so congrats to innerG on winning in front of his home crowd

Gooden vs Jousset
Gooden KO RD 2

I really don't feel great about this pick. In terms of technical striking, this fight isn't remotely close. Gooden's striking consists of plodding forward & eating shots on the chin until he gets close enough to throw bombs. Jousset is a technical striker & fights very well behind his jab and low kicks. He will be able to land on gooden at will but im curious if he will be able to hurt him. Jousset carries no power at all, he is a very sharp technician but hits like a wmma fighter. This worries me because, while he may be up on the scorecards, gooden isn't going to respect his striking & will continue to march forward. In the Fogagnolo fight, Jousset couldn't deal with the forward pressure at all; he didn't have the power to deter his opponent and was struggling in the brawl. He also is quite stiff on the feet & doesn't move his head very well. again, he is so much better technically but I do worry about the forward pressure of gooden; if he makes it ugly he has a very good chance of winning. That being said, gooden is a bad fighter & his strategy rarely works at the ufc level. He won his last fight but was getting dominated, I highly doubt lightning strikes twice. I think I lean gooden at the moment but im gonna be flipping back and forth all week on this one.

Aldrich vs Hardy 
Hardy DEC 

Safe to say I was wrong about Hardy. She has clearly improved a ton in her time off, however, I don't want to fully jump on the hype train because she has fought two very bad fighters. Hardy's kickboxing & footwork is actually quite good, not too sure about her ground game yet but JJ has no wrestling at all so shouldn't be an issue. The Erin fight really shifted my perspective on JJ; I thought she was good from that fight but now it's clear Erin just sucks at striking. JJ is slow and unathletic, so I think she is going to struggle with the powerful and dynamic striking of hardy. JJ's striking is pretty 1D so, I feel the kicking game and footwork of hardy is going to throw her off of her game.

Lewis vs Nascimento
Lewis KO RD 1

Very easy fight to call. Lewis is very washed but this is not one of those fights he loses. Nascimento is a grappler so I see how he can win, but if you watch his fights he hardly ever shoots takedowns anymore. Even if he does wrestle here, his ground game is pretty terrible & lewis should easily be able to get to his feet. Nasicmmento likes to strike but his striking is also awful. He is very hittable and doesnt have great power. All you need to know is he managed to lose a round to Alan baudot; nuff said. Lewis round 1 domination



Buckley vs Ruziboev
Buckley KO RD 1

great fight right here. ruziboev is an enigma, his regional tape is some of the worst ive seen, with multiple fixed fights yet he has dominated everyone in the ufc. His fights on the regional scene were all similar, his opponents shot a td & he would Kimura them from his back. In the ufc, he has been exclusively a striker. From his fights, it's clear hes very powerful but idk if he is necessarily a good striker. Again, he is powerful and also very big, but he is also stiff on the feet & against Dumas he kept spamming the same uppercut over and over again. Not only that, but he was also telegraphing his shots pretty well. I think he can definitely ko Buckley (especially since Buckley has struggled with taller guys in the past), but I have to favor Buckley because of his power and athleticism. Buckley may be the smaller guy but he can apply insane pressure and his striking combinations are very powerful. I have seen ruziboev get dropped before on the regional scene, so I know hes not invincible. I really think he is going to struggle not being the hammer for once. Another interesting edge is the grappling. Now, I have no idea what to expect with ruziboev given how it looked outside the ufc, but I can only assume he still concedes takedowns. Buckley has been mixing in his wrestling a lot more recently & I think it's really good. He times his attempts well, but he also carries that explosiveness that he does in his strikes. Even if ruziboev tries that stupid kimura from guard, I highly doubt he will sub a ranked guy with it. On top, Buckley should easily be able to smash him with gnp. I know people are high on ruziboev but I think Buckley smashes him.

Menifield vs Ulberg
Ulberg KO RD 3

I think this is going to play out how we all expected the jacoby fight to go; Ulberg is going to easily outpoint the sloppy menifield and maybe finish him. Ive seen a lot of people that like alonzo but I personally think he is terrible. His winstreak consists of a fraud, washed misha, 2 wars with crute, and then jacoby. Jacoby was a good win but I don't really think alonzo was the better fighter there. He was getting clearly outpointed by jacoby but once he finally dropped him, jacoby stopped trying to win and played defense. When you break it down, alonzo is not a good striker, he literally is just explosive and powerful. His striking consists of winging powerful hooks at full speed and hoping it lands. Ulberg has really impressed me with his striking. His first couple ufc fights were ugly, but he has dominated everyone else hes fought with ease. I think he will easily outpoint alonozo, who is sloppy and leaves his chin up in a lot of exchanges. We know ulberg doesn't like pressure, but he has done well with that issue in the past & once he finds his range I think he will easily be able to control the fight. He won't have to wrry about takedowns either as alonzo doesn't wrestle. I feel pretty good about ulberg here.



Ferriera vs Rebecki
Rebecki KO RD 2

This is low-key one of the most fun fights on the card. CDF has always been one of my favs and rebecki has looked like a monster aside from his debut. Despite clearly being out of his prime, CDF is still a tough fight for anyone. For being a bjj guy, his striking is deceptively good. He has a clean jab and throws a lot of body and leg kicks. Hes got pretty high output as well and I think gives rebecki a lot of issues at range, especially with an 8 inch reach advantage. Rebecki is a pretty good striker himself but he is not great at range & a little too aggressive. Diego has deceptive power & I could see him getting hit with a counter (not just because of the MJ fight). That being said, that same aggression is likely what wins him the fight; CDF was very uncomfortable against MJ when they started throwing in the pocket & we also saw him lose the striking against beneil as well when beneil turned it into a brawl. All rebecki does on the feet is march you down and try to kill you, his leg kicks and hooks are really powerful. The grappling is what makes this super interesting. Rebecki is a monster on top but CDF has (imo) the perfect grappling style for mma. He will pull guard but knows how to be effective on bottom, and he has absurd scrambling ability (watch any fight on his losing streak to see what I mean). I think rebecki will be able to hold him down, but when they are fresh I think he is going to have some issues holding him down or doing any effective damage. I feel decently good about rebecki but an upset wouldn't shock me at all, CDF is still really good despite being nearly 40

Caceres vs Woodson
Caceres DEC

Another pretty tough one here. Idk why but I have never been overly impressed with Woodsons game. Yes, hes massive and has good boxing, but I feel like he is too reliant on his size. When he has fought taller featherweights (Saldana and erosa) he has struggled badly. Saldana and rosa fight very differently compared to caceres, but it shows a trend that Woodson struggles against taller guys. Caceres not only happens to be one of the taller fws but he has his own very unique style. For as tricky as Woodson is, I think caceres is equally as hard to find out; nothing he throws is orthodox. He has a weird karate style & throws everything from weird angles that you don't see. Another thing about Woodson that I think hurts him here is his lack of power. I always feel as if he doesn't hit hard enough and given how good caceres is at evening the strike count, I think this could be a really close fight. Another interesting edge is caceres grappling. Now, Woodson is very hard to take down but it's mostly because of his height; hes had a lot of lower level guys be able to easily close the distance on him and get on a leg but defends because hes so lanky. I doubt caceres will get him down but caceres is a very crafty grappler. If he is able to get Woodson near the fence, he does have the ability to take his back standing or do something weird. Not confident it will work due to size, but I do know that besides that, Woodson is not a very good grappler. I like caceres for the upset here

Cortes-Acosta vs Despaigne 
Despaigne KO RD 1

despaigne is a very interesting signing. We don't know much about him at all, but he possesses nuclear power and absurd physical gifts that you just don't see at 265. I have a feeling he has no cardio or grappling, but I don't think we see any of that come into play outside of the top 15; maybe cardio here if Waldo is able to survive, but I just don't see it. I originally was leaning Waldo but after watching the tape I think this is a favorable matchup for despagine. With Waldo, we at least know what we are getting & have seen him tested before, but man he is so unimpressive to me. He has some good qualities like durability, cardio, and output, but he is a terrible striker and lacks ko power or striking iq. The big thing for me is his defense; he blocks punches with his face & even encourages you to hit him at times. Im shocked it's held up so well considering hes been koed stiff a few times in boxing. At the same time though, he hasn't fought someone with the power of despaigne and looking at how hittable he is, I really think despagine is going to sleep him bad.

Lewis vs. Nascimento
Derrick Lewis, TKO
bet

Buckley vs. Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev, TKO
don't bet

Menifield vs. Ulberg
Carlos Ulberg, TKO
bet. Take single bet for menifield KO upset

Ferreira vs. Rębecki
Mateusz Rębecki, TKO
bet. big bet?

Caceres vs. Woodson
Sean Woodson, DEC
bet

Cortes-Acosta vs. Despaigne
Robelis Despaigne, TKO
bet. Big bet?

Hooper vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, TKO
bet

McKinney vs. Ribovics
Terrance McKinney
Don't bet

Ricci vs. Torres
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
Bet

Waters vs. Goff
Trey Waters
Don't bet

Hadley vs. Johnson
Jake Hadley
Don't bet

Gooden vs. Jousset
Kevin Jousset, DEC
Bet

Aldrich vs. Hardy
Veronica Hardy, DEC
Bet fight to go distance

They are underestimating the power of Salsa dancing 

I think I read Ruziboev walks around at like 190lbs. He's very skinny and wasn't really cutting any weight to make Middleweight. It will definitely be interesting to see how he does, especially considering how battle tested Buckley is. Ruziboev hasn't seen a 2nd round since 2019, so he really better have this weight cut figured out. I think Buckley will be really hard to put away in 5 minutes so there's a very good chance his cardio gets tested here. 

If there's a time to try this cut, it's now for Ruziboev. He's already 30 and the path to a title shot is arguably quicker at 170 than it is at 185. If he beats Buckley he will officially make me a believer, but I'm finding it really hard to back him here. 

Hooper vs Borschev should end in the first round.It's either Hooper sub or Slava ko/tko

This card is very stacked, I wasn’t expecting it with Rodrigo Naccimento in the main event, might be one of the more sneaky good card ever, might be more exited for this card then some of the PPV

Buckley vs. Ruziboev
Nursulton Ruziboev, TKO, R2
ruziboev is a lock, buckleys in and out striking style will fail him in this matchup and he will get caught trying to exit the pocket, its a technical flaw that buckley has against long opponents. Even though ruziboev has little ufc experience I've been very impressed with his striking, he was able to make the read on ferreira's inside kicks instantly, caught it and slept him he also sets traps on the feet which you rarely see from most MMA fighters unless their high level strikers or fighters coming from a deep striking background. love buckley as a person but this is just a bad matchup for him.

Ruziboev is a lock LOL 😆 😂 🤣 😅 😄 😜 😆 😂 🤣 

Bro are you high?

@Rah123 

Ruz def is no lock. I am genuinely curious why so many are so high on him? ive seen some act on social media like he is the uncrowned champ. its wild

Ruziboev just can't be a lock when he's so untested and his past if you dig into it, will give you a weird look. On the other hand, Buckley has been phenomenal recently. Fialho ko doesn't mean much but the way he performed against Morono and Luque tells me a how much he has improved, he looks the best he's ever been. Concerning factor for Buck is gonna be how big Ruziboev will be, 6'5 at welterweight. Even if you're a better fighter someone with that build can give you problems.

* Edited at 05.06.2024, 6:34 PM ET *

I expect that fight to be a banger

Caceres vs. Woodson
Alex Caceres, DEC
Caceres is actually capable of posing a threat and doing damage, whereas Sean will be boring and just try to eke out a decision. Bruce Leeroy is the better "unpredictable guy" between the two.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Despaigne
Robelis Despaigne, TKO, R1
Please MMA gods give us an Emmett-Mitchell KO after what Waldo did to Arlovski

Waters vs. Goff
Trey Waters, DEC
Goff's style won't work on a 6'5" guy. He likes to kill or be killed but Trey will be content to lay back and pointfight. 30-27.

Hadley vs. Johnson
Jake Hadley, DEC
Maksum was a great win for InnerG but he was getting ****** up bad until Maksum deathgassed, and you could still make an argument for a draw in that fight. I don't think Hadley will have the same cardio issues. 30-27

Gooden vs. Jousset
Jared Gooden, TKO, R3
Gooden is a dawg and will make this a brawl. I don't trust Jousset to hold up well under pressure and Gooden hits much harder.

Anyone know wats the open line for Waters fight?

Slava vs hooper under 1.5 rounds is +105 right now. That might be the best bet on the card 

Lewis vs. Nascimento
Rodrigo Nascimento, DEC
lewis is mostly here to collect as many checks as he can before retirement. the optics have been pretty poor for me in most of his last few but you can never count out a power puncher.

Menifield vs. Ulberg
Alonzo Menifield, TKO, R3
experience will be the deciding factor in my opinion. a patient menifield that takes top control or counters as ulberg is coming in will give ulberg one of the toughest fights he's had in my estimation

Caceres vs. Woodson
Alex Caceres, TKO, R3
woodson gonna have to check kicks all night and caceres comes from some awkward ass hard to see coming angles. i think his leg gets chewed up before round 3 and then caceres takes the decision or possibly hits the tko when woodson has just 1 leg

Cortes-Acosta vs. Despaigne
Robelis Despaigne, TKO, R2
i don't think acosta will handle the power well and will crumble after being buzzed

Hooper vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, TKO, R2
will chase ever develop a striking game?

Hadley vs. Johnson
Charles Johnson, DEC
WE BE SQUABBLIN'

Aldrich vs. Hardy
Veronica Hardy, SUB, R2
hardy finally getting some respect by the oddsmakers

@Oneyecrook 

have -168 currently 

Buckley v Ruziboev is a trap, just trying to figure out for who. Good match making.